Retail Media, Real Returns and the First-Party Data Debate with Ben Oliver, Media & ICP Lead, Mars Petcare

Transcript

Our transcripts are generated by AI. Please excuse any typos and if you have any specific questions please email info@digitalshelfinstitute.org.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (00:00):
Welcome to Unpacking the Digital Shelf APAC Edition, where we explore the unique challenges and opportunities shaping digital commerce across Asia Pacific with insights from the region's top experts.

Teresa Sperti (00:23):
Hello and welcome back to Unpacking the Digital Shelf the APAC Edition. Today we are joined by Ben Oliver, media and ICP lead at Mars Petcare to unpack the evolving world of pet care and the role retail media plays in driving brand and commercial growth. Australia's online pet food and supplies market continues to grow with the industry estimated to reach $1.2 billion in 2026. But as competition intensifies across grocery, specialist pet retailers, marketplaces like Amazon, and emerging quick commerce platforms, pet brands are navigating an increasingly fragmented and complex retail landscape. For brands like Mars Petcare, which rely on retail partners to reach consumers, this presents both opportunities and challenges. How do we build an effective retail media strategy across multiple channels? How do you balance brand building with short-term sales performance? And importantly, how do you measure the true impact of your investment when you don't own the final transaction?

(01:25):
These are all the questions we will be digging into today with Ben. So Ben, welcome to the podcast. So great to have you along.

Ben Oliver (01:32):
Great. Thanks for having me, Teresa. Pleasure to be here.

Teresa Sperti (01:35):
Okay. So Ben, we are going to dive right in. And where I want to start is I want to talk a little bit more about the landscape that I've just touched on. So the Australian pet care category has really evolved over the past five years. We've seen rapid growth in marketplace channels like Amazon. Specialty Pet has seen demonstrable growth online and in store. And it's a category where we've seen strong adoption of subscriptions. And of course, there's the quick commerce piece as well. So Ben, from a Mars Petcare perspective, how has this evolution of the category changed the way that Mars has to think about commerce and its commerce strategy and engaging shoppers across an increasingly diverse range of channels?

Ben Oliver (02:18):
Yeah, no, it's a great question. I think from our point of view, it changes everything, but also it doesn't change anything at the same time. We still need to, like any other business in this category, we still need to maintain the fundamentals of the right product and the right pricing and the right distribution strategy. So I think in many ways the fundamentals don't change. Obviously what you refer to and what has changed is just the sheer nature of touch points that consumers can now buy pet food from. And years ago, most pet food was obviously sold through the grocery channels and that was the vast majority of where pet food was bought. Today, grocery remains a really important channel for us and those partners are critical to our success. And on top of that, we've now got all these other channels where you've got... The market in some ways is going top and tail.

(03:04):
So you've got this really interesting dynamic of the specialty, the rise of the specialty store, which is interesting because traditionally you'd go to your Woolies or your Coles and you would simply do your weekly shop and you'd grab a bag of pet food along the way. And many shoppers are still taking advantage of that style of shopping. But you increasingly have also got other types of shoppers who do like to make a trip to one of the specialty stores. And when I say specialty, I'm talking like a pet barn or pet circle or pet stock or these sort of guys and do a specialty where there might be a particular product or a particular price they've got in mind. So the rise of that channel has been a really interesting dynamic to see and how do we play in that channel? What are the right products and pricing that can win in those channels?

(03:47):
Then on the other side of it, you've got what we call large assortment and you've got an incredible array of places to buy pet food. Bunnings is a really interesting use case there. You walk into Bunnings now, there's a giant tower of pedigree, which is awesome to see. Then you've got other channels like Audi and you've got Kmas, and then you've got obviously online players like Amazon who are hungry for growth in that category as well. It's a fun time to be in this sector to be fair because you've got so many different customers, all slightly different dynamics and points of difference. Our role is to work with all of them and try and find mutual outcomes. It's an intellectually stimulating time to be in this category, I'd say.

Teresa Sperti (04:30):
And enable the shopper to purchase the way that they want and via the channel they want, right?

Ben Oliver (04:35):
Yeah, exactly.

Teresa Sperti (04:36):
And the subscription piece is an interesting one that how have you seen the subscription piece change the way some shoppers are buying over time? Has it become set and forget for some shoppers around this category or do you really see that as a very small portion of the market?

Ben Oliver (04:52):
Yeah, it's a good question. It's a bit of a mix, and I think some customers are definitely leaning into subscribe and save style purchase mechanics more than others and some are more set up for it than others. I think pet food in particular is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this sort of sales dynamic given the nature of the product. It's what we call the non-expandable category. You buy as much pet food as you need. It's a fixed calorie diet. Well, I mean, you can make the argument that dogs have no fixed calorie, they'll just eat whatever you put in front of them. But that's a whole other problem. And more. And more, I know. Whereas cats are different. But yeah, and depending on where you shop and what kind of pet you have, your interval purchase period could vary greatly. You could be buying pet food anywhere from every two to three weeks right up until 12 weeks potentially if you're buying large pack sizes.

(05:43):
So yeah, the nature of those sort of subscribe ones, I'd say look, as a general rule, it's still the minority of the way that people do shop. However, as more and more people appreciate the ease of online shopping, whether it's via grocery or specialty or whatever, I think, and particularly given that it's a set timeframe for you, you know you need pet food a certain period of time, my personal suspicion is that we'll probably see that type of behavior increase over time. So yeah, I think not all categories are set up and built in a way that works well with subscribe, but I think pet nutrition is one that potentially has a great angle there.

Teresa Sperti (06:27):
Absolutely. And I think as we've seen Amazon grow, obviously the subscribe and save offering has grown in market. And then you've got obviously the likes of your pet circles in the local market that are very strong subscription-based offerings. So that's really interesting. So in light of the broader commerce strategy, we talked about, I mean essentially pet food is, you can buy it anywhere through any channel these days on the basis of all of the channels that you walked us through and the non-conventional retailers that you now even see the product stocked within. So in light of that and the importance of being discoverable and the preferred choice wherever shoppers choose to shop, how does Mars Petcare think about the role of retail media or the role that retail media plays across different channels and how do you ensure your investment is working collectively to deliver the best outcome for the business from a sales point of view and broader brand building perspective?

Ben Oliver (07:25):
And I think retail media as an activation pillar plays a really important role alongside the other ways that we go to market through comms, whether it's particularly with our ATL. And we're in a unique position that with the shopper team and the retail media team and myself, we all work quite closely together on what we're doing. And I think that's extremely helpful to make sure we're getting a complete view. So I think the holistic view on how we go to market generally I think is really important. And then I think the role that retail media specifically plays, I mean we, like most in the category, have moved into retail very much with a lower funnel mindset and around driving, harvesting those shoppers who are currently in market for our product. I think a lot of retailers will talk about the opportunities for brand building in retail, and I think potentially that's an angle for us to look at in the future.

(08:19):
I think for now, like most, we are looking at it more as a conversion style channel, but then there's nuances within that and I think there is much like when I think about ATL, I tend to think of it through two lenses. There's the always on reach component, which is your master brand and making sure that you're topping up saliency and mental availability. But then you'll have those brand tempo moments that have cultural alignment or particular objectives around message association, whatever it is. And I think retail in many ways is not dissimilar. There's a role for retail that fulfills that always on when we don't know when shoppers are going to come into market, but they will at some point. So without being able to time that exactly, there's an important role for it to play to do that always on saliency function. And then there'll be times when the brands will want to make a splash.

(09:12):
So I think maybe it's my background in training in media, but I tend to view retail as not being entirely dissimilar from how we think about buying off-network media and the way it can be used. But I think certainly the initial use case for retail for mine is always that short-term commercial harvesting piece. But like I say, it's an evolution and we're always looking at how that can evolve in the future.

Teresa Sperti (09:38):
And are you seeing your investment in one channel has a halo effect to other channels and therefore your retail media planning is not just occurring within the channel, but across the space more holistically to optimize the ultimate outcome for the organization? Or is it still very much looking at it through the lens of, well, we're working with the individual retailers and yes, through individual marketplaces and we really think about the return at a platform level and channel level?

Ben Oliver (10:06):
Yeah, it's a great question. There are types of retail activation where the probability of a halo effect is minimal given the ad format. So I think if you are buying always on search on a Woolies, for example, through Citrus Cartology, I think the spillover of that into other channels like Kohl's is probably optimistic, I would say, to say the least. But then there are times when you're buying retail. I mean, I'm really thinking more about off-network retail where what's a good example? So we've done work with Amazon in the past where there'll be a mixture of on-network as well as off-network. And then for that, we'll often look at understanding, well, we've run off-network Amazon ads for open web display or prime video, for example. So you're not just reaching people who solely buy -

Teresa Sperti (10:59):
Call on-platform shoppers.

Ben Oliver (11:01):
Yeah.

Teresa Sperti (11:01):
Yes.

Ben Oliver (11:01):
Yeah, yeah. So we'll obviously partner with them to look at how we target Amazon shoppers, but the reality is it's going out to a wider market. And so I think in those cases there's an opportunity to see, well, have we seen uplift in other channels because of the nature of how we bought that off-network? So yeah, it does become a bit of a case by case. I would say generally speaking with retail media where we talk about on-network versus off-network, the on-network is the low-hanging fruit that I think most brands start with. And then you start to look at off-network buyers and see how that acts as a supplementary channel. So yeah, I mean on-network, I would say generally speaking, you're looking at it more in channel than off-network potentially there are halo effects, but it's always a bit of a case by case.

Teresa Sperti (11:47):
I think that's a really good way to think about it, particularly for those that are trying to grapple with what is that halo effect and how do I start to think about that strategically to quantify it and when should I quantify it? You've touched on the brand building piece of retail media networks and the fact that very much today Mars sees retail media as that bottom funnel, playing that bottom funnel role, driving those short-term sales performance outcomes. I'd love to get a personal perspective from you around retail media networks and what you feel they need to do locally, globally to be able to garner more investment from brand-building budgets. Because there's a lot of talk about it, there's lots of retail media networks globally and locally looking to secure those brand-building budgets. And it's interesting to hear how you're thinking about it today at Mars.

(12:41):
But what's your perspective on that and what would entice a media leader like yourselves to go, "Yes, we need to look at this more seriously as a key brand-building channel?"

Ben Oliver (12:53):
Yeah. Even before brand-building, I'd say if you want more dollars from a company like Mars Pediatrician, then it's transparency in its return. I don't think we are that unique in that aspect. So looking at the pure retail media investment scope, we always want to understand what incremental value is this driving for our business and how can we get a mutual outcome? How can we win? How can the category win? How can the consumer win? So that's more the traditional retail buyers that the networks have really pushed. To your question though around brand, similar. I think what I think the pitch from a lot of retail media networks about off-network has been around the value of 1PD as an accuracy piece of targeting. And I think in the context of obviously Apple's recent updates around third-party intermediaries and data targeting has thrown a bit of a spatter in the works for how a lot of people view audience signal and therefore things like 1PD become even more attractive in some ways.

(13:56):
But I think yes, and there is incredible value in 1PD that those Woolies and Coles and these sort of customers will always have better 1PD, arguably will have better 1PD and more scope than most suppliers will. But then that targeting does come at a cost. And I think what we always want to understand is we're not questioning the value of your 1PD cohorts. We know the value of it. I think what a lot of brands, not just in pet food, but broadly are trying to now getting their heads around is like, well, yes, if we use your 1PD to buy potentially BVOD or Meta or all these sort of off-network channels, we love the idea of targeting with more precision and more accuracy, but what's it going to cost us? And I think the unit costs there I think are really important. And outside of pet care, well just generally, you see a really large range and I think there are some customers who are super competitive on what they can offer through off-network, and that all comes down to unit pricing around what they're going out with.

(15:09):
They often criticize customers, but I think what people have got to remember about what... Retail has pretty small margins, as you know. That's right. Exactly. Raise the thing, if you're working at Coles and Woolies, these guys are not working off 30, 40% margins. They're working off far, far smaller margins. I don't think a lot of people realize this. So retail media, I understand where they're coming from. It offers this opportunity to expand margin in a way that they can't do through other levers. I completely understand the business imperative for them to push more suppliers into this range, and there is value there. But like all things, everything is a trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness. And I think would one PD targeting be more effective than just cookie-based or audience graph stuff? Most cases, yes. But is it going to cost so much more that the uplift isn't there?

(15:58):
And that's something that all brands have got to go through the work and ask themselves.

Teresa Sperti (16:02):
Probably. Yeah. I think what I'm hearing essentially is it's that weighing up of the value for the premium inventory that you're buying. How much premium can retail media networks put on it? And then do the economics weigh up in terms of the value that it will deliver the brand by paying that premium versus buying brand building activity that sits outside of the retail media network?

Ben Oliver (16:26):
Spot on. Yeah.

Teresa Sperti (16:27):
Yeah. And that makes absolute sense to me. And I think you're right. I mean, if we think about retailers and margins, particularly at the moment, there's significant squeeze as a result of cost of living, prices are rising quickly, and we know that the cost of doing business is not declining, it's only growing, particularly as more shoppers move to buy online, and that is a more cost-intensive channel to manage as retailers. So I think there's some really rational arguments there as to why do they need to charge the premium in the first place? And there is real value in that 1P data. It's just about how much of

Ben Oliver (17:08):
A

Teresa Sperti (17:08):
Premium can be justified, I suppose, on the basis of the return that you're looking for and the objectives you're trying to achieve.

Ben Oliver (17:14):
And that's it. Yeah, exactly right. I mean, I think aligning your objectives with those unit economic metrics mate is really the key unlock here. So I think there'll be times that the unit economics make perfect sense and there'll be other times that it doesn't make sense.

Teresa Sperti (17:29):
That's right. That's right.

Ben Oliver (17:30):
And I think one thing I would say is I can see a world where brands transact a huge amount of their ATL via customer retail media networks, and it becomes a holistic buy. You get your onsite and you're offsite, and it's all just... There is a world where that can happen, where agencies just get cut out entirely. I think it's unlikely, but I can see a world where it happens. But I think in order for that dream to be realized, I think that, and I'm talking broadly here, not just in pet nutrition, but I think for that dream to be realized, the customers need to act and think like media agencies.

Teresa Sperti (18:06):
Yes, that's right.

Ben Oliver (18:08):
That's right.

Teresa Sperti (18:08):
Yes.

Ben Oliver (18:08):
And there's the transparency, there's the rate cards, there's the media plans, there's the sales upload. There's all the kind of things that media right or there's the strategy, there's all the kind of things that media agencies do and have done for a long time that has built that trust and that capability and that muscle of how to do this. And I think to put in perspective, most customers have only been doing off-network retail media for less than 10 years in Australia.

Teresa Sperti (18:32):
That's right. Yeah.

Ben Oliver (18:35):
If even that, right? That's right. I'm thinking, geez, when did Cartology and Coles360, they're still very new entities. They are. They are. I mean, sophisticated, but still new nonetheless. So I think the unlock I think will be you go out and you hire an MD of a Zenith or a Half Dome and they become head of off network. Again, I'm sort of talking in generalities here, but that I think is where you're going to see the unlock, where brands suddenly go, "You know what? Actually, instead of giving you X, I'm going to give you X plus Y."

Teresa Sperti (19:12):
Because I can see the value, and I can assess it against the other media that I'm buying today, and I'm confident to back it into my brand and business that this is going to continue to shift the brand perception, drive the awareness, salience we need right through to then support conversion and demand.

Ben Oliver (19:35):
Absolutely.

Teresa Sperti (19:36):
Absolute sense. All right, so I'm going to pivot. Good conversation though. I love that conversation, and I'm sure lots of those leading retail media networks are sitting there listening intentively to what we just spoke

Ben Oliver (19:48):
About.

Teresa Sperti (19:49):
That's right.

Ben Oliver (19:52):
Take strategy from this guy. Yeah, definitely.

Teresa Sperti (19:54):
Yeah. So I want to explore retail media through another lens, and that's the role it plays in building both mental and physical availability, because I know that's a topic that you are really passionate about talking about. So do you think we're getting to the point where brands can have strong distribution and physical availability, but without retail media investment, they're effectively becoming invisible on the digital shelf? Second part.

Ben Oliver (20:26):
Sorry, sorry.

Teresa Sperti (20:26):
No, it's okay. And as AI increases its influence in terms of what shoppers discover and are recommended, do you see this further exacerbating that concept that without retail media, you're effectively invisible?

Ben Oliver (20:44):
Lots to unpack there. Right. First part. The question on the role that retail media plays I think is an interesting one. I think every business needs to go through this process to understand, is retail media primarily playing a physical availability? I'm using very Ehrenberg-Bass language here because that's what I'm used to. But whether you call it physical availability, whether you call it distribution, it's all the same thing. So does retail media play primarily a physical availability role or does it also play more of a performance, call it mental availability role, I suppose? But are you seeing retail as a way to ensure distribution and shelf space, or are you seeing retail media as a way to drive performance and conversion? Now, in the words of Mark Ritzen, it can be both. Now, if it is both, that's also fine, but you need to pick a primary.

(21:31):
And the reason you need to pick a primary is because whichever one you go with will determine the metrics by which you view success. So if you think, right, the retail media we are buying is all about ensuring that we are visible when shoppers go and have a look at us, whether it's pet food, whether it's snacking, whether it's soft drinks, whatever it looks like, detergent, are we viewing this as primarily almost like you would view total distribution points or the way the shopper guys talk about planograms, where are we? Are we left or right? Are we top or down? Is it an extension of the planogram in a traditional shopper sense? And if it is, then you should be using the metrics by which that is successful. So for me, that would be things like impression share or depending on what metrics you can get back, can you understand not just impression share, but share of top four results or average position, applying some of those Google style metrics to it, and then that becomes the lens by which you view success.

Teresa Sperti (22:27):
Because it's interesting, Ben, obviously physical availability different. I commit to retail media spend. I've got commitment of where I sit on the shelf. I know the number of facings. From a digital point of view though, that physical availability, if I commit to retail media, first just the commitment I'm going to spend X amount per year doesn't guarantee me that I'm going to get prominent placement on digital shelf. I've then still got to go through my citrus bidding and things are changing all the time. So for me, in a world where discovery is driven by algorithms and it's driven by LLMs, and in some way, shape or form where you've got endless aisles, countless numbers of products, sometimes just that commitment to spend in retail media doesn't necessarily give you that physical availability when the customer goes to look for that product.

Ben Oliver (23:24):
No, true. And you're right, it's not an exact corollary with shoppers. So you're absolutely right. There are nuances to digital availability versus physical that need to be taken into account. That being said though, the point on the endless aisle, there is a limit to that. We know that most people don't go past page one and almost no one goes past page two. And then in an onsite sense, very few people will... I think there was a report done a while ago, I can't remember the source, but it was something like 70 to 80% of the clicks go to the top 10 results on results. And again, there's some interesting results about are the paid listings your top four or your top eight or where do they sit? So I think if you're looking at... If 70 to 80% of your clicks are going to say the top half of the page and most of the top half of the page is paid listings, then-

Teresa Sperti (24:13):
Then that's fine. You get the physical -

Ben Oliver (24:14):
Then you get the physical.

Teresa Sperti (24:16):
Physical availability.

Ben Oliver (24:18):
That's right.

Teresa Sperti (24:18):
Yes.

Ben Oliver (24:18):
And then whether you appear in there and where you appear, you're right, comes down to a CPC bid at the end of the day. Are you prepared to bid more than your competitors? And it's a little bit of a tricky one for most retail buying networks where it isn't like a Google where you can get a pretty good sense of competitor bids. There's a bit more guesswork involved and that may change over time. I haven't been on the retail media tools in a while, but that was always a problem. We are like, "What should our max CPC bid be?" I'm like, "I don't know. Wha's it been historically?" And there's a bit of inch, inch, inch, inch, inch, and then you find the ceiling. So yeah, no, you're right. There's some nuances there, but I think in reality, if you're not buying retail, you're not really getting seen, I think, as a broad thing.

(25:02):
So that's the -

Teresa Sperti (25:04):
And you have to be there to be -

Ben Oliver (25:06):
If you're not there, you're coming forward.

Teresa Sperti (25:07):
Consideration set. And so there's a kind of a hygiene piece here around -

Ben Oliver (25:12):
Yes, yes, very much so.

Teresa Sperti (25:13):
Physical availability to drive physical availability on digital shelf. You have to pay to play.

Ben Oliver (25:20):
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. So I think, look, and this is why it's not an easy answer to this, but I'd say look, there's definitely a physical availability thing and the metrics that go with that. And also remembering as well that in some industries, this is all wrapped up in trade spend. So in some cases it forms part of business agreements and JBPs. So you know you're going to spend the money. It is a matter of if. So that's also part of the consideration. And then there's the actual conversion part of it. Now, again, I would argue, I don't think there'd be a world where you'd say all we care about is are we being seen, particularly in retail where you are tracking through closed loop systems. I think you are going to want to understand, well, if we spend this money, are we getting incremental returns?

(26:06):
So I'd probably say, does that form the primary objective for why you're doing it? Or is it more we're doing it because we want to make sure we're seen and we're also going to report? So I think it's probably just a hierarchy piece more than anything else. And then when it comes to the incrementality part of it, that's where it gets really tricky in retail because historically across all categories, I think understanding incrementality in retail has been quite tricky. I'd say we're now seeing broadly across all categories MMM playing a larger role in how retail media is reported and viewed. Things like incrementality testing can give you a short-term window on IROAS, which you can then use as a multiplier to then think about what the reported ROAS is. And then you start to make some assumptions on, well, if the reported ROAS is X, we think it's actually Y because of what we know and what we've tested historically.

(26:58):
I mean, I think ROAS has a really important role in platform attribution and optimization. I think where I think practitioners need to be careful is comparing ROAS across platforms I think is fraud.

Teresa Sperti (27:11):
It's about understanding how it's calculated to begin with.

Ben Oliver (27:14):
Oh, there's a whole bunch of things.What model are you using? What's your attribution window? Yeah, exactly. And even I would say in a category like ours where you've got particularly attribution windows across different customers where people are shopping more frequently in grocery versus in SBT, so then how does that affect how ROAS is calculated? So I think all these things got to be taken into account. So I think ROAS to optimize in campaign in one platform is probably the only way you can do it in real time. But I think where ROAS does get challenging is when you start to compare Woollies versus Coles or Woollies versus Petbarn. I think that can be a tricky thing to handle. Yeah.

Teresa Sperti (27:58):
Which obviously ties back to the whole challenge the industry has been talking to for a while, which is around standardization of metrics. But I do think you make a really good point, and it's something that we talk to our clients about a lot. We see a lot of leveraging retailer data to undertake their own internal measurement without the understanding of the definition that sits behind the metrics. So that attribution window is critical. You can't compare a 14-day with a 30-day attribution window and compare for return and outcome. And they're some of the conversations you need to be having with the networks themselves around how do they define that attribution approach in the first place. So you make sure that when you're assessing that data, you know on the basis of how it's been calculated or defined to begin with. I mean, you've touched on MMM and we're talking about ROAS, we're talking about incrementality.

(28:54):
So how do you think brands can effectively measure the true effectiveness of their retail media investment? There's no silver bullet for everyone listening at home. We're not going to sit here and go, "This is the magic formula." But Ben, how do you think brands can build a really strong picture of effectiveness and performance that they can use to guide decision making and future investment decisions?

Ben Oliver (29:21):
Yeah. I think the way that I can look at retail media measurement is not that dissimilar to how I view it in broader ATL. Again, I come back to the three core pillars of marketing measurement.You've got MMM, you've got incrementality testing, and you've got multi-touch attribution models. I think there's a couple of things we've got to... One, to your point, there is no silver bullet here. And I think as marketers, we've just got to come to embrace and be comfortable in a little bit of ambiguity. Two, it's all about triangulation, and as an extension of that lack of certainty, there are probabilities we are dealing with here. I think, again, one thing I heard talk about recently was the exact number is in some ways less important than the direction of it.

Teresa Sperti (30:05):
I agree. I absolutely agree. It's something I've talked a lot about over my career. I've run analytics teams, I've done a lot of work in the measurement reporting space, and it is about, it's not that absolute certainty in the number. Sometimes it's the trend or the shift that we need to be looking at more closely. I agree.

Ben Oliver (30:24):
And look, again, we live in this time and era where we can get access to almost real-time sales data, but it's dangerous. I've seen third party case studies where people have run incrementality tests and they've run an intervention for four weeks, and they've only looked at the uplift in the four week period and decided, oh, you know what?

Teresa Sperti (30:45):
Not good.

Ben Oliver (30:47):
Not

Teresa Sperti (30:47):
Good.

Ben Oliver (30:47):
Or even if you look at a range of probabilities, you might get a p-value of, I don't know, 0.05, 0.1. And I have this argument with data scientists all the time about bloody P values, or the P value's only 0.1. I'm like, mate, we're in marketing. I'd be happy with a P-value of 0.2. Let's be real here. Anyway, that's a little bugbear of mine. But then you come back to this issue of if you're looking at incrementality in the intervention window, particularly in categories with broader interval purchase periods, you are missing a trick because you're going to be forgetting that there's a whole bunch of shoppers exposed to your intervention that for whatever reason didn't buy -

Teresa Sperti (31:27):
They're not buying it. Yeah, that's

Ben Oliver (31:28):
Right. But then suddenly they've entered the category.

Teresa Sperti (31:31):
Pet food is one of them, right? The frequency to which people are buying. If they're buying in bulk, it may not be within that four week window.

Ben Oliver (31:39):
Yeah. And I've literally seen, I've seen studies where you go, right, what was the intervention period? Cool. And then you kind of wonder if you'd added an extra four to eight weeks halo, I reckon you would've tripled your incremental reported revenue. And look, there are some categories, look, I talk about the triple marketing approach like it applies to all categories. Look, it doesn't. If you're in a particular category like auto where the interval purchase period is seven to 10 years, you're not going to be able to write a four week intervention, right? Yes, that's right. That's where tools like that are less effective. But I'd say if you know the tools, then it's like anything, you pick the right tool for the right job. So I think within that toolkit, there should be enough there to give you a directional read. And the other thing I'd say as well, one thing that you can get lost a bit and not see the forest from the trees.

(32:38):
It's easy to get hung up on, well, what was the incremental return of this particular campaign? And I'm not saying that's not important, but ultimately it's all about driving top line revenue. So go back to your top line revenue and look at that as your guiding light. I mean, again, tricky because you need to have a better understanding of what percentage of my media is driving top line revenue. And in some categories that's incredibly high and in

Lauren Livak Gilbert (33:02):
Others

Ben Oliver (33:02):
It's much lower. So you could have a gangbusters media return, but your top line is stubbornly staying where it is. But these are all the things, but I would say what's the overall return looking like over a long period? Is it going where it needs to go or is it not? I think we get very focused on the individual intervention, but what's the broader picture telling us now?

Teresa Sperti (33:23):
Yeah, and I think that's really true and important. So I think MMM builds part of that picture, incrementality tests help build part of that picture. What's the trajectory over the longer term business performance? And I think one thing that you've touched on that I'm really passionate about is you can look at that attribution window and it could have performed really well, but you might've sold additional product all to your existing customer base and you're not actually growing share over time through bringing your customers into the funnel. Or the reverse could also be true that you've had a poorer sales performance period, but actually you've brought in a whole lot of new shoppers to brand and over time that's going to help support market share growth over the long term. So that shopper behavior piece I think is really important alongside of what you're talking about.

(34:19):
And I often see that it's really missed within this market. So you see a lot of brands with their Quantium subscriptions and their Unify Plus subscriptions. And when it comes to retail media, they're not going and using that data to help build a story around retail media performance. Over that period where we ran activity, what did we see at a shopper behavior level over and above what we saw at a sales level?

Ben Oliver (34:46):
I think it's a great shout.

Teresa Sperti (34:47):
Yeah.

Ben Oliver (34:48):
And category share, what happened during that? And you mentioned new to brand, incredibly important for penetration. So all these data points, I just think it's incredibly dangerous, getting back to the whole silver bullet analogy, you really can't be viewing success via one particular metric. It's got to be a combination of new to brand, category share, incremental revenue, because you're right, you could drive incremental revenue, but new to brand stays flat. And then you would argue, well, is that a good outcome? Or you've got plenty of new to brand, but maybe incremental didn't happen, but then that's a slightly different story. So yeah, I think -

Teresa Sperti (35:24):
Which is the danger I think of being very short-term sales performance focused only and ROAS focused, right?

Ben Oliver (35:31):
Absolutely.

Teresa Sperti (35:32):
ROAS does not tell you. It gives you the broad top line, well, I spent this and I got this back, but where did the dollars come from?

Ben Oliver (35:41):
And that interplay between brand and performance, I think from a planning point of view, I don't like it when I necessarily hear people talk about, well, it's all brand or I think from a planning point of view, you have to have a budget that is brand and you have to have a budget that is retail or performance. So they have to sit in line items, you have to think about it that way. But where it becomes really important is to remember, the two crazy stats that I think just really illustrate this is the John Doe's 95-5 rule where you've only got 5% of your consumers are in market at any given time. But then you combine that with some work out of Oxford University Business School and they look at what percentage of consumers are predisposed to a particular brand before they enter category. And that's like 84%.

(36:28):
So of the 5%, 84% of the 5% have already got a brand in mind before they enter the category. So then you go, well, if you're a business and you are looking at rising CACs or lower LTVs and you're looking at just the performance media, but you're not looking at, well, has our brand spend halved or what are we doing there? All these things interplay with each other.

Teresa Sperti (36:54):
Absolutely. Absolutely. And also I fundamentally believe, I've been in digital long enough and marketing long enough to know that performance activity builds a brand. You can't argue that it doesn't play a role in building a perception around the brand, but where does brand building stop and start? It's not hard and fast. Like I think you said, the allocation of spend has to sit somewhere. There has to be an allocation of brand and there has to be an allocation of performance. But I think in a world where commerce is so pervasive and so much of the research and discovery is happening online, the idea that a performance activity is only driving performance, I have to question every conversation I have because I think it does play

Ben Oliver (37:42):
A

Teresa Sperti (37:42):
Role to building.

Ben Oliver (37:45):
And we get a bit hung up on can performance drive brand uplift or brand consideration? And I think to me that reduces the argument down in a way that isn't helpful. I think every touch point you have with brand is brand.

Teresa Sperti (38:04):
Is brand, that's right.

Ben Oliver (38:05):
Exactly. In some way shape or form.

Teresa Sperti (38:06):
Exactly.

Ben Oliver (38:10):
I've probably been guilty of this of the past where I'd say, well, would retail media drive uplifts in brand awareness? Well, probably not, but that's not to say that you going onto a customer and buying it from the experience of buying a brand, whether it's direct or via an intermediary, is in itself an act of brand in some way, shape or form. And I think we probably just want to be careful about reducing it down to... I mean, I'm sort of saying we shouldn't reduce it down to measurability in the context of this conversation, but I think it's dangerous to just think of it as, well, retail media can't drive brand awareness, therefore it's on a brand tour. Well, it's doing a brand job, it's just doing a different type of brand job.

Teresa Sperti (38:50):
It is, absolutely.

Ben Oliver (38:51):
It just depends how you... I was on a panel recently talking about the rise of experience and how external data talking about how shoppers are craving experiences these days. And my point was that you can't reduce experiences down to activations because a lot of people hear experience and they think physical pop-up. And my point was, no, no, no. Experience is everything. You watching a YouTube ad is an experience. You buying the products. I mean, I used to work at Treasury Wine Estates and you pick up a bottle of Penfolds and it feels weighty and the bottle and there's indents and there's the sound of... All of that is experience.

Teresa Sperti (39:30):
Experience, that's right. I agree. I absolutely agree.

Ben Oliver (39:33):
Anyway, went off a bit of a tangent.

Teresa Sperti (39:35):
No, but good conversation because I think ultimately this idea of we pigeonhole brand into brand, performance into performance and pit them against each other, I don't think it's been effective within many organizations over time having such a kind of linear and rigid view. Okay, I'm going to change topics again. We're going to talk a little bit about first party data identity technology. So we're obviously seeing some of the world's largest FMCG brands, consumer brands investing heavily in MarTech and ad tech capabilities to improve marketing and media effectiveness and really better connect the shopper journey. And these brands are building first party data assets. They're investing in customer data platforms, identity resolution, leveraging data clean rooms, and the list goes on. But I know from previous conversations that I've had with you that you are not necessarily convinced of the value or return of some of these investments.

(40:31):
So I'd like to unpack your perspectives on this. Where do you see these capabilities genuinely adding value for brands and where do you think maybe the industry is over investing?

Ben Oliver (40:42):
Yeah, you're right. My default position on most things is cynicism. I think what I'm fighting against is just a broad view that we all accept without questioning that every brand should have one PD.That's my starting position because I would argue, and this is looking at all categories, all brands, I would argue there should not be a world where you just say, "We have to have one PD," and then the answer is, "Well, we have to because we have to."That's where I start. It's less about the cynicism of 1PD and more about the dogma that one PD is everything and all brands have to have one PD. That's probably the starting point to go from. So with that being said, I think where we are seeing brands pivot and embrace 1PD I think is quite interesting and there's some broad trends that I'm seeing, not just in paired, but across a whole range of categories.

(41:38):
I'd say there's a measurement piece around 1PD where you have things like clean rooms come into play where again, some of these use cases overlap where 1PD paired with a clean room can also be done by an MMM. You're asking an incremental revenue question ultimately at the end of the day. Now for something like that to work, you need vast amounts of one PD. I think that's one thing people misunderstand about clean rooms is you're not borrowing the customer's 1PD, you're matching it with your own and if you don't have a lot, then you can't get a good answer. So I think there are some definite use cases there, but it's a scale of 1PD and 1PD doesn't come for free. It's its own cost. And for some brands that will make a lot of sense and for some it won't. So I think that's an interesting use case that I think not all brands can do just because of the sheer volume of 1PD that a brand would need to acquire.

(42:32):
Not everyone's a Coke, obviously.

(42:37):
Then I think with OnePD, there's some interesting use cases around media. So for example, using OnePD as a seed audience to create lookalike audiences. And again, this is a bit of a replacement of, I guess, the more traditional third party data signals. Again, Safari has really thrown a lot of plans into disarray. So I think there's some interesting use cases around, and that doesn't require huge amounts of 1PD to build those models and lookalikes. So I think that's an interesting use case. I think the other one that I've seen as well, and some brands in, I'm trying to think who it was, I think it might've been Asahi, but I've seen some interesting brands use 1PD more for market research and it becomes more like focus group and MPD testing. I think that's a really fascinating use case because I think you could quibble over whether testing MPD with a highly engaged, highly active 1PD group provides a skew on the results or not.

(43:32):
I think you can have that conversation on the sidelines. But I think the counter argument is, well, if you've got a really solid group of 1PD and they're enjoying what you're putting out there and they're giving you live feedback, that's pretty valuable, right?

(43:51):
I remember years ago, a guy called Chris Maxwell was doing some work when he was at CUB around this, and I think that's a really fascinating use case of using OnePD. What else are there?

Teresa Sperti (44:02):
Essentially, I think what I'm hearing from you is there's a lot of talk about it. Brands are probably underestimating in some respects what it's going to take to build scale. And if you want your One PD strategy to deliver, deliver both in terms of your ability to be able to leverage it for data clean rooms, for measurement, to be able to activate it at scale for media, you need that scale. And for some brands, they may not be able to build that scale. So it's about really considering, are we all in on this and does it make sense and what role is it going to play? And then all of the tech comes with it in terms of what tech do we then need to enable it? But the question's got to come back to first and foremost, what role is it playing? How important is it for us as brands?

(44:51):
And can we drive the scale that we need where it's going to deliver business return is I think what I'm hearing from.

Ben Oliver (44:57):
Exactly. And I think particularly when you... I've seen a lot of businesses get very excited by OnePD in certain categories. God, I saw one years ago, I forget the name of the brand, but they were in the, I think it was Baby Care Formula or Baby Food or something like that. And they had this KPI that every single campaign had to capture 1PD. And I remember hearing this guy talk and just thinking to myself, why? Your 1PD ages way quicker than other 1PD. In pet care, if we acquire OnePD as a puppy, you could argue we've got them.

Teresa Sperti (45:31):
Well, for 15 years maybe.

Ben Oliver (45:33):
Yeah, but then even then they might go back and buy another dog. But in that one, you've really only got that... And their counter argument I suppose would be, well, that's why we need to keep getting it because it keeps the freshness of that 1PD decay so quickly. But then I'm like, what's the cost of doing that? And there's the media targeting cost of using 1PD versus BAU. You talked about this, there's the tech costs. If you've got a CDP, you have to count that cost as part of it, right? And depending on your vendor, they can be quite expensive. Then the people to use these tools. So I think if you're going to go down this path, you've really got to think about what's the total cost of us doing this and is it going to be enough to overcome our current... Is it going to provide more effectiveness?

(46:23):
It's going to be less efficient, I would argue, but is it going to be more effective enough to overcome?

Teresa Sperti (46:27):
Yeah. And I think the other consideration is what role does it play as part of a broader commerce strategy if you are going D2C and for some FMCGs, CPGs, that's highly relevant. Okay, we're nearly coming to a close, but I'm going to ask one more question of you.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (46:46):
Sure.

Teresa Sperti (46:47):
As retail media continues to mature, the number of platforms and investment opportunities is only growing. We're not seeing fewer retail media networks in market, we're seeing more. So looking ahead, what do you think FMCG and CPG brands need to do differently to maximize the effectiveness of their retail media investments? Maybe give me two or three thoughts around that.

Ben Oliver (47:09):
Yeah, I would say start becoming obsessed by measurement. Really, the final goal or the final endpoint should be we spent X and did we get more back than we spent? I think incrementality should be the first and last word out of everyone who works in this industry. And if you're not getting a return on your investment, then that should be the initial red flag. I think particularly as a supplier, our goal is to not only get a return on our investment, but we want to help our customers grow as well. I think there's also, are we growing and is the customer growing with us? And that is a measurement question, and if you can't answer that, then you've got to go back to basics and build that measurement stack that helps you answer that quickly. Otherwise, every other decision you make is not going to be grounded on good frameworks.

(48:02):
I think become obsessed by measurement is one thing I would say. And then I think from a measurement standpoint, we talked a bit about incrementality tests. They can seem quite scary, but you can start small. Just start with A test. Some brands will run... I mean, by the nature of incrementality tests, you generally can't do too many per year because you've got to have a baseline period, then the intervention period, then you need to be spending a certain amount to hit stat seq thresholds and blah, blah, blah. But I think you don't need to try and do five or six or seven per year. Just do one. Just start with one, do a really simple test. And do it well.

Teresa Sperti (48:39):
And do it well. And do it well.

Ben Oliver (48:40):
Yeah.

Teresa Sperti (48:40):
Yeah.

Ben Oliver (48:40):
Well, that's the thing. I say to our agency partners, I would rather spend more and know the result than try and budget it in and be left wondering. There's nothing worse than doing a test and then it comes in and it's inconclusive. I don't care what the result is. Well, I try not to have a dog in the fight one way or another, but what I do care about is, is there a clear winner? And there's nothing worse. So do one, do it properly, fund it properly, and be patient, I think is the other thing I'd say is we all want instantly, but particularly with an incrementality test, depending on your category, make sure you're understanding your interval purchase period and applying that to how you view the halo post-intervention period being measured because I guarantee if you don't, you're going to be getting a diminished view of what that intervention would've provided.

Teresa Sperti (49:33):
Yeah, that makes sense. And ultimately execute it well, right? It's not about the test itself, it's often about the way that we execute. And sometimes the idea may not be bad, it might be the execution. So sometimes I find you might need to run your incrementality testing a series of times in order to ensure you've got the optimal execution to determine is your hypothesis right or not? Because sometimes the idea is right, it's the execution that's wrong.

Ben Oliver (50:01):
Yep, exactly right. Yep.

Teresa Sperti (50:03):
Well, Ben, I think that's all we've got time for today. Thank you so much for joining me. I've really, really enjoyed this conversation. I think we've covered a lot of ground.

Ben Oliver (50:12):
We have. We've covered a ton of ground. It's been great.

Teresa Sperti (50:14):
Yeah, it's been great. I've really, really enjoyed it. So thank you so much for your time, and thanks to everyone as always for tuning into Unpacking the Digital Shelf, the APAC edition with me, Theresa Sperti.